TL;DR: I’m taking EKU -3.5 and EKU/TTU OVER 151.5, along with the Houston Rockets -3.0. Read on to see why.
Sports betting combines two of my favorite things in the world: making money from my recliner and watching sports. But there’s a third part of sports betting that can make the hobby a little more tedious: researching statistics in order to make informed decisions. That’s why I’m here to do it for you. It’s something that every bookie and handicapper does on a regular basis, but one that usually comes with little transparency. Most sports betting analysis sites won’t clue you in on how they make their decisions, or which metrics they use to determine how and when to make picks. That’s where this blog aims to be different. Instead of saying “I’m betting 1 unit on the Knicks to cover the spread tonight and you should just fucking trust me”, I’ll actually be explaining my picks to the reader.
My goal is to make money through betting on sports, and not at the expense of your money. That’s the 2nd reason why this blog will be unique in comparison to most handicappers: All of my picks are free. In the words of the great and wise Butters Stotch, I want you to make some real motherf***ing money. So that’s why I’m here. That’s why I’m sharing my picks with you. It might be prudent to observe my picks first, and then start tailing them as you become more comfortable with my suggestions.
For some of you, this may be your first foray into the sports gambling world. Others may be more seasoned gamblers who already know that betting on the Warriors moneyline when they’re down 10 at the half is one of the easiest ways to make money in the world. But for those beginners, here are some quick tips to start you out:
- Decide On Your Unit Size. When I’m sharing my picks, I’ll usually state how many units I’m betting. In the sports betting world, a unit is a consistent betting amount. For some of you, a unit might be anywhere from $5 to $50. So if I’m betting 1 unit on the 49ers to cover the spread and your unit size is $10, you would bet $10. So decide what unit size you plan on using, and remain consistent. You can always change it in the future depending on how you’re doing, but maybe start out small. Also keep in mind just how multi-unit betting works. Most of my bets will be 1u, but if I recommend a 2u bet, it doesn’t necessarily mean that the bet is twice as likely to cash. More often than not, increasing unit size simply implies that I believe there is considerably more value in that bet.
- Don’t Second Guess Yourself. If you made a bet, you made it. If you didn’t, you didn’t. Don’t beat yourself up because you didn’t end up betting a winning line. It’s impossible to know exactly what’s going to happen, and chance plays a big role in this whole thing, so just relax and enjoy after you’ve made a bet. And for the love of God, please don’t hedge a bet just because you don’t feel good about it. If you bet on UNC -1.5 and they’re down 10 at halftime, do not- I REPEAT, DO NOT- hedge your bet by placing a wager on the opposing team.
- Lastly, Remember That This Is a Game. While I like making money, and I will be keeping success at the forefront of my mind when making my betting suggestions, please don’t tail these bets if you can’t afford to lose some money. No one is perfect, and I will lose you some bets. You will occasionally lose money with me, and I can’t guarantee you anything. I’ll never even say “this bet is a sure thing” because I don’t believe in sure things, even when I feel very very confident in a pick. So please only participate if you can actually afford to, and remember: this is just a game.
Lastly, let’s talk about formatting. This blog, which I will post weekly, will typically consist of a short story or summary relating to gambling or sports in general. Then I’ll hop into some picks, which I will explain in some detail. Lastly, I will throw a unique betting suggestion at you; it may be a Future or a trend, or something else I found interesting. You’ll see what I mean later on. Also, on occasion I will comment underneath my posts with picks that came about after my posts. Most lines don’t get posted until the day before (or even the morning of), so my content can be limited. To combat this problem, I’ll try to stay up-to-date by making suggestions as I go. So keep coming back to the page and checking for weekend picks or player props that weren’t originally available- this will happen often.
Alright, now let’s get down to it.
Eastern Kentucky vs. Tennessee Tech
I know, I know. You didn’t come here for Eastern Kentucky men’s basketball. You’re here for games like Duke-UNC. But mid-major basketball matchups can have a lot of value. While the public reacts quickly to a wonky Duke vs. Virginia basketball line, an advantageous OVER/UNDER in a Niagara-Manhattan basketball game can go unnoticed, and you can get your picks submitted before the line moves. Let’s lay out some info on this game:
- Line: EKU -3.5, OVER/UNDER 151.5.
- This line has already moved from its opening number of EKU -2.
- Tennessee Tech’s offense is a dumpster fire inside of a dumpster fire. They only score 68 points/game and they have an Offensive Efficiency rating of 92.3, which is good for 338th out of 353 teams… Their defense is bad too, at 253rd best in the country.
- EKU has a high-scoring offense, ranked 19th in Points/Game, but isn’t too efficient- 268th best. Their defense is probably worse than Tennessee Tech’s offense, allowing over 83 points per game. There are only 3 teams in the country that allow more points against.
- EKU is 1-6 Against the Spread (ATS) in its last 7 games, they’re 0-5 Straight-Up (SU) in its last 5 road games. But Tennessee Tech is only 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games, while being 0-5 SU in their past 5 home games.
With the information available, I am comfortable taking EKU -3.5 and OVER 151.5, both at 1u. I actually love this OVER bet. EKU is scoring 82 points per game and their defense is so horrendous that I think they may be one of the only teams in the country that can allow 80 points to Tennessee Tech. EKU’s recent trends scared me away from betting the line initially, but discovering that Tennessee Tech managed to drop its last 5 games at home brought me back onboard… Even bad teams are expected to protect their home court at least 50% of the time, so if a squad can drop 5 straight in front of their own fans I’m pretty comfortable taking the away team to win by a few points.
Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
- Line: Houston -3, OVER/UNDER 233
- Lakers Notable Injuries:
- Out: Lonzo Ball
- Questionable: Tyson Chandler
- Probable: Josh Hart, Mike Muscala
- Rockets Notable Injuries:
- Out: Iman Shumpert
- Probable: Clint Capela, Austin Rivers
- The Rockets have won 6 games in a row against the Lakers.
- Rockers Last 6 Games: 4-2
- Lakers Last 6 Games: 2-4
The last time the Lakers won a home game against a team with a positive record was in late December… They’re playing like shit and their team is in turmoil. I’m taking the Rockets -3.0 in this one. The line actually started with the Rockets as underdogs, at +1.5. I wish I had been lucky enough to bet it then, but I’ll still take it now. The Rockets have the kind of offense that can put this thing away in the first quarter. With Ball out, I like this line a lot.
There’s currently an interesting future that I like. Futures, for those that don’t know, are bets whose action occurs fairly far in the future. Pretty self-explanatory. This week, I like Joey Bosa to be the first overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft at -200. It’s not exactly a lottery winner, but -200 odds aren’t bad on a bet that looks really really really good. Almost all NFL mock drafts have him going 1st overall. I’m putting 2 units on this bet, but I would recommend anywhere up to 3u.
To recap, I’m betting:
- EKU -3.5
- EKU/TTU OVER 151.5
- Rockets -3 @ Lakers
I want to leave you all on a few miscellaneous notes:
- I am not a professional handicapper. In fact, I’m fairly new at this. I’ve been betting for about 6 years, and have recently been interested in handicapping. I really think I’m good at this and encourage you to observe my picks, but I still feel that you deserve to know when you’re dealing with an amateur.
- I will usually contribute an odd number of picks on my blog posts. Going even isn’t any fun in sports betting, so I’ll try to provide you an opportunity to go at least 2-1 in the event of a loss.
- I am not guaranteeing any wins, and I suggest that you use critical thinking when gambling.
- Finally, I recommend checking out the other content here at Kicked Out media. The podcasts are great, and there is a lot of great basketball discussion going on over at the Blow-By Podcast.
I hope you all liked by first submission to the Kicked Out Sportsbook. Let’s make some money together.
featured image sourced from Sam’s Town Tunica